About Extreme Unusual Attitudes

This site was inspired by the book...

Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction

by Philip Tetlock

What is Superforecasting?

In the book, Tetlock describes his research programme - lasting well over 30 years - studying all aspects of serious forecasting and prediction.

He started out wanting to know how accurate professional political pundits and experts are when they make predictions. In his celebrated assessment, he discovered they were not much better than "dart-throwing chimpanzees".

More recently, Tetlock asked why we get it wrong when we make predictions (as we often do), and whether we can get it right (which, with discipline, we sometimes can). The latter bit is superforecasting: how to frame questions precisely, research them from all angles, update your forecasts, and avoid common psychological pitfalls, like Kahneman's System 1 heuristics and biases.

You can read more about superforecasting in my blog entry, Superforecasting Will Become the Next Big Thing Unless It Doesn’t.

Or simply visit my blog site, Wonders and Decpetions.

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