A site about Superforecasting for Ex-Dart-Throwing Chimps
Superforecasting is a programme devised by Philip Tetlock, and is described in his book,
Basically, it is about how to become a better forecaster of events through precision and discipline. This web site is designed to help you in attaining that goal.
You can read more about superforecasting in the About page of this site, or my blog entry, Superforecasting Will Become the Next Big Thing Unless It Doesn’t.
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User Tag | Question | Probability |
---|---|---|
Brad | Clinton Wins Nomination? | 0.90 |
Brad | Clinton Wins Nomination? | 0.90 |
Brad | UK General Election in 2016 | 0.40 |
Brad | GBP/EUR >= 1.35 on 31/07/2016 | 0.05 |
Brad | 2016 Warmest Year Ever? | 0.95 |
Tag | Question Abbreviation |
---|---|
Q029 | UK Labour Party split in two before 2017? |
Q030 | UK Conservative Party split in two before 2017? |
Q027 | Teresa May Next UK Prime Minister |
Q028 | Pound/Euro Below 1.10 Before End 2016 |
Q026 | UK General Election in 2016 |